《基本养老保险制度研究》

——以保险水平为视角

王海东（著）

自  序

以《关于建立统一的企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》（国发[1997]26号）为标志，我国社会统筹与个人账户相结合的基本养老保险制度正式建立。制度运行十多年来，覆盖面不断扩大、退休金水平不断提高，为保障退休人员基本生活，维护社会和谐稳定做出了重要贡献。但同时也要看到，由于制度机制的不完善、政府投入的不足、计发办法的不合理以及制度执行不到位等，基本养老保险制度的健康发展也面临着新的矛盾和难题，且在某些方面有问题越发严重的趋势。这些问题突出表现在：保障水平不足，社会平均工资替代率水平不断下滑且已低于目标水平；个人账户仍采取一年期银行利息计息的方式，既达不到保值增值的要求，也难以提供预设的目标保障水平，还造成了宏观上资源配置的低效率。个人账户在管理、投资方面的实践与探索步伐与现实需要相比，还有较大差距；退休年龄仍采取上世纪50年代的标准，既不符合人口预期寿命已经大幅提高的现实，也放大了人口老龄化给养老保险制度带来的财务威胁。目前，退休年龄政策的调整仍处于理论探讨阶段，尚未迈出实质性步伐；资格年限仍维持15年的低标准，远低于平均32.5年的就业年限。这不仅无助于缓解收支矛盾，还可能在非正规就业群体参保比例逐步增大的情况下，引发大规模的“搭便车”，从而加剧养老基金的收支矛盾。资格年限问题的实质在于人为恶化了制度赡养比，加剧了人口老龄化的威胁。目前，这一问题尚未得到应有的重视；政府连续7年增加退休人员养老金，乃是以行政命令的方式缓解制度自身的矛盾，但即便如此，仍未能遏制替代率进一步下滑的趋势，不仅未能从根本上解决保障水平问题，还一定程度上掩盖了制度自身的不足，无助于建立起有效保障退休生活的长效机制。

我国基本养老保险制度暴露出的问题，既有席卷世界的养老金私有化改革浪潮的影响，更有我们在制度设计、制度执行等方面存在的不足。我们曾借鉴别国经验而建立起基本养老保险制度，但分析他国制度不足等方面还显不足。现在，面对这一制度暴露出的问题，我们不能回避、掩盖，更不能进一步扩大问题的覆盖面。目前，农村社会养老保险制度已经基本复制了基本养老保险制度的社会统筹与个人账户的结合模式，机关事业单位向基本养老保险制度并轨的呼声也日益见涨，并已在部分地区展开试点实践。这将加大整个社会养老保险制度改革的成本，也凸显了解决上述问题的重要性和紧迫性。

基本养老保险制度的完善将为机关事业单位养老保险制度改革奠定基础。统一企业和机关事业单位基本养老保险制度应以改革完善现行基本养老保险制度为前提和基础。养老金是工资收入的延期支付，短期而言，革除积弊、完善基本养老保险制度，可为机关事业单位养老保险制度改革提供借鉴。长远来看，从根本上理顺企业、机关、事业单位的养老金关系，必须以理顺三者工资关系为前提，而解决这一问题的基础在于建立公务员和企业相当人员的工资调查比较制度。就养老金水平而言，无论从个人之间的比较，还是从企业、机关、事业单位等不同群体的比较来看，都应该将工资和养老金统筹起来考虑，否则，很难获得全面的认识，特别是难以就其中的任何一方面（工资或养老金）形成共识，也就很难养老金差距给出客观、准确的评价。

养老保险制度的根本出发点和落脚点在于为老年人提供可靠的养老金保障水平。本文以保障水平这一“牛鼻子”问题为切入点，以社会平均工资替代率为衡量指标，采用比较研究、定量与定性分析等多种分析方法和手段，全面地分析了现行制度下基本养老保险制度的现状、发展趋势、影响因素等，深刻揭示了社会平均工资替代率不断下滑的内在机理，特别是个人账户收益率、退休年龄、养老金缴费资格年限等因素对替代率的影响，并通过对养老金私有化改革之典型的国家的分析，进一步阐释了私有化改革对养老金的保障水平、健康发展带来深远影响，以及未来的发展趋势，从而在更高层次、更宽视野内加深了对我国基本养老保险改革历程，以及面临的种种问题和矛盾的认识，为制度的改革与完善提供参考，同时亦可为我国农村、机关事业单位养老保险制度改革提供有益启示。进而有助于正本清源，透过现象看本质，准确把握我国基本养老保险制度改革所处的历史方位，科学判断问题产生的各种主、客观原因，找到解决问题的正确途径和方法。围绕这一主线，论文具体安排如下：

第一章为绪论，提出研究主题－基于保障水平的基本养老保险制度研究，分析了在保障水平方面存在突出矛盾和问题，以及背景环境。第二章为文献研究。着重分析比较了国内外关于养老保险制度架构模式的研究，以及有关养老金替代率、目标替代率等指标的研究，强调了社会平均工资替代率的含义和重要性；第三章为基本养老保险替代率变化的机理分析，详细分析替代率不断下滑趋势及其内在运行机理；第四章、第五章和第六章为养老金替代率的影响因素分析。其中，第四章定量计算出了不同收入群体的社会平均工资替代率，反映了基本养老保险待遇的内部差距，以及保障水平下滑与不足的现状。第五章、第六章则分别就影响基本养老保险替代率的个人账户收益率、退休年龄、养老金领取资格年限等三个重要因素进行了专门研究。分析了这些因素与基本养老保险替代率水平之间的相关性，指出了当前在个人账户计息、退休年龄与资格年限设定等方面存在的突出问题和矛盾；第七章分析了基本养老保险替代率在不同性别、不同收入群体之间的差距；第八章是基于保障水平的养老金制度国际比较，重点分析比较了英国、瑞典的养老金制度，介绍了经合组织（OECD）国家的养老金总体情况；第九章分析了我国农村、机关事业单位养老保险制度改革从基本养老保险制度改革中获得的启示；第十章为结论与政策建议。

经过全文的分析、论证，笔者认为改革完善基本养老保险制度，应准确把握上述问题的表象与实质，突出保障水平－社会平均工资替代率这个重点，以构建制度长期健康发展的长效机制为主线，重点在以下几方面下功夫：第一，要充分认识到社会平均工资替代率下滑所带来的严重后果，而不应止步于满足每年增加一定的养老金；第二，可在个人账户逐步“做实”的基础上，尽快完善投资管理办法，进行市场化运营，并建立起养老金与投资收益挂钩的办法，切实改变当前的低水平计息做法。同时，市场监管要同步到位，注意处理好平衡收益与风险的关系。另外，可考虑将个人账户独立出来，划入企业年金管理，以利于分清政府、企业和个人的养老金；第三，适时研究调整退休年龄与缴费资格年限等政策的时机和办法，充分认识该因素对于保障水平、制度可持续发展的重要影响；第四，要全面梳理基本养老保险制度的发展历程，准确把握私有化改革的发展趋势，认真总结经验教训，并分析其对于农村、机关事业单位养老保险改革的重要启示，为后者政策的制定和完善提供实践参考。

Abstract

As the government issued the document-The Decision of Constructing Basic Old Insurance system for the Employees, China has legislated mixed basic old insurance system with a defined benefit pay-as-you-go portion and an investment-based defined contribution portion. This system has being running for a decade, the coverage rate has been extended and the pension level has been enhanced, and which contributed to old lives and our harmonious society. But we have to see that the basic old insurance system is confronted with more and more problems, for some reasons, such as incomplete policy, inadequate finance assistance, unreasonable benefit formula, and unrestricted policy running, etc. We can see these problems: inadequate pension, low replacement rate which is below the target value, and the individual accounts with a yield equal to one-year saving interest in the bank. The individual accounts are depreciator and inefficient, and can't provide enough pension. As to the individual accounts management and investment, there is a big gap between the realism and the requiring. The retire age was set in 1950s, and it’s not accord with the expected longevity today, and magnifies the threats to the finance healthy triggers from the old-age crisis. Now, there is some theory discussing of the retire age, but not practice. The pension qualification is still 15 years contribution, below the average working years, which is 32.5 years now. All that is not helpful to relief the finance tension, but triggers hitching a ride as the system encourage the informal employees to take part in. In fact, the problems of the low year qualification enhance the ratio amount to the old to the young, we say supporting ratio, and pricking up the old-age threaten. But until now, people pay little attention to these problems. Our government has enhanced pension level for seven years with administrative orders, but that can't prevent the replacement ratio from falling. This method not only do not resolve problems ultimately, but also cover up the real problems, and is not helpful to construct a sound system from the long-term.

There are several reasons for these problems of the basic old age insurance system. those includes not only the influence of the pension privatization of the whole world, but also some shortcomings of the system itself and the system running mechanism. We have constructed our pension system by using other countries’ experience for reference, but we have not paid enough attention to their shortcomings. Now, the problems is there, we should not just cover or runaround it, or even enlarge the coverage area of the same problems. Nowadays, the social old age insurance system for the farmers has copied the model of the basic old age insurance system, and it’s a mixed system with a pay-as-you-go pillar and a individual accounts pillar. Furthermore, there is some advices to copy the models of the basic old-age insurance system to the pensions schemes for the government employees and other civil servants, and the some local have set up pilot for the reform. Obviously, the pilot will increase the cost of reform, which show us the importance and the pressure for resolving these problems.

The ultimate goal of the basic old-age insurance is providing enough pension for the old. This dissertation catches hold of this sticking point, analyzes the status, development direction and influence factors of our pension system, and uncovers the mechanism of the falling replacement ratio, the influence factors to the replacement ratio, such as the yield interest of the individual accounts, retire age, and contribution qualification, with some comparing or quantitative analysis method by using the social average wage replacement ratio as the key index. Also, the author explains the influence of the pension privatization reform to the pension level and the pension system, by analyzes some representative countries’ pension system. That is helpful to comprehend the process of our pension reform and its' problems from higher or broader horizon, which is instructive for the pension reform for the rural area and the civil servants. Moreover, we can catch the essence, grasp the history direction of our basic old-age insurance system truly, and find the reasons and resoling way. Around this direction, this dissertation concludes several chapters as follows:

The first chapter is instruction, points out the theme of this dissertation-the analysis of the basic old-age insurance system based on the pension level, analyzes the key problem of the pension and the background. The second chapter is literature study. In this chapter, the author compare different pension frame in different countries, the definition of replacement ratio and its' target value, and emphasize the importance of the social average wage replacement ratio. The third chapter analyzes the mechanism of the moving of the replacement ratio. The fourth, fifth and sixth chapters analyze some important influence factors of the replacement ratio. The forth chapter calculates the replacement ratio for different herd by quantitative methods, shows that the pension is inadequate and the pension difference among different wage cohorts. The fifth and sixth chapters analyzes the yield of the individual accounts, retire age and contribution qualification on the base of the foregoing chapters, investigates the relationship between these factors and the replacement ratio, and point out that the low yield of the individual accounts, low retire age and 15 years contribution qualification are disadvantageous to the whole pension system. The seventh Chapter analyze the pension gap between different gender and different wage group. The eighth chapter gives the comparative analysis , by analyzing the pension reform in UK and Sweden, and introduces the pension system of OECD countries. The ninth chapter gives some inspiration to the pension reform for the famers and civil servants from the basic old-age insurance system. The tenth chapter is conclusions and policy advices.

By analyzing the basic old-age insurance system, the author think that we have to catch the phenomena and essence, emphasize the replacement ratio, and try to construct a sound mechanism for the pension system. The emphases are: first, we have to realize the bad aftermath of the low replacement ratio, not only enhance the pension payment every year. Second, we have to perfect the investment policy, invest the individual fund in the market, and establish the link between the yield and the pension payment, based on filling the nominal accounts. And we can take the individual account into the enterprise annuity, that is convenient to distinguish the pension responsibility among the government, enterprise and pensioner. At the same time, we must construct effective supervision regular, keep balance the yield and the market risk. Third, we have to discuss the time and plan of adjusting the retire year and contribution qualification demand, and understand its' big influence to the pension level and the sustainability of the pension system. Fourth, we have to clean up the process of the reform of the basic old-age insurance system, catch on its' development direction, sum up the experience & lessons, analyze the important inspiration for the pension reform of the farmers and civil servants, give some practice reference for the policy makers.

目    录

第1章绪论                                                                                       9

1.1 基本养老保险制度发展沿革与背景                                             10

1.1.1 基本养老保险制度之发展沿革                                                   10

1.1.2 基本养老保险制度的时代背景                                            11

1.2保障水平的突出问题－替代率低且持续下滑                           16

1.3 研究架构                                                                                         19

第2章基本养老保险制度研究综述                                                21

2.1 基本养老保险制度架构模式研究综述                              21

2.1.1 国内研究                                                                                            21

2.1.2 国外相关研究                                                                                  25

2.1.3 小结                                                                                                27

2.2 保障水平－替代率研究                                                                27

2.2.1 替代率指标的定义                                                                        28

2.2.2 目标替代率研究                                                                             30

2.3 本章小结                                                                                              36

第3章制度内在机制与目标保障水平的冲突                                  37

3.1制度设计之目标替代率的合理性                                                 38

3.2实际替代率下降的现实                                                                38

3.3实际替代率下降的机理分析                                                           39

3.4 26号文与38号文对替代率影响之比较分析                             41

3.4.1现行基本养老保险制度计发办法的运行机理与替代率     41

3.4.2替代率的预测                                                                                   49

3.4.3小结                                                                                                   50

第4章基本养老保险替代率与缴费水平的关系                              52

4.1社会平均工资替代率模型公式介绍                                             52

4.2社会平均工资替代率结果分析                                                      53

4.3个人退休前工资替代率模型介绍                                                 62

4.4 个人退休前工资替代率结果分析                                                64

4.5本章小结                                                                                               75

第5章基本养老保险替代率与基金收益率的关系                      77

5.1关于个人账户基金管理的政策及评价                                   77

5.2个人账户基金管理制度安排及其理论                                   79

5.3个人账户基金收益率的意义                                                          83

5.4现行制度安排对替代率的影响                                                      84

5.4.1目标替代率预期与现实                                                                84

5.4.2个人账户收益率与替代率的定量分析                                    85

5.4.3小结                                                                                                     93

5.5个人账户管理与基本养老保险制度可持续发展                     94

5.6结论与政策含义                                                                                  95

第6章替代率与退休年龄及资格年限的关系                                  97

6.1关于退休年龄的分析与评估                                                           97

6.1.1研究及公式说明                                                                              105

6.1.2不同情况下的社会平均工资替代率计算结果及分析       108

6.1.3退休年龄与基本养老保险制度可持续发展                           114

6.1.4退休年龄政策结论与政策含义                                                  115

6.2领取资格年限政策的分析与评估                                                 124

6.2.1领取资格年限的财务分析                                                           124

6.2.2基本养老保险领取资格与人口老龄化的冲突                      125

6.2.3 养老金资格年限对基础养老金替代率的影响                     126

6.2.4基本养老金领取资格对个人账户养老金的影响                 131

6.2.5 缴费年限对女性养老金的影响                                                 133

6.2.6 缴费年限政策结论与政策含义                                                 134

第7章不同群体间养老金待遇水平的差距分析                             137

7.1 养老金水平的性别差距                                                                  137

7.1.1 基础养老金替代率的性别间差距                                            138

7.1.2 个人账户养老金替代率的性别间差距                                   139

7.1.3 总替代率的性别间差距                                                               140

7.2 养老金水平在不同收入群体间的差距                                     141

7.2.1 基础养老金替代率在不同收入群体间的差距                     141

7.2.2 个人账户养老金替代率在不同收入群体间的差距           142

7.2.3 总替代率在不同收入群体间的差距                                       143

7.3 关于针对不同群体建立不同制度的探讨                                 143

7.4 小结                                                                                                      144

第8章基于保障水平的养老金制度国际比较                                 146

8.1 英国                                                                                                      146

8.1.1英国养老金私有化改革历程及现状                                        147

8.1.2改革效果及评价                                                                             151

8.1.3 结论与启示                                                                                     158

8.2 瑞典                                                                                                      159

8.3 保障水平国际比较－经合组织（OECD）与中国              167

8.3.1 保障水平－替代率                                                                        167

8.3.2 不同收入群体养老金的差距                                                     168

第9章对其他群体养老保险制度改革的启示                                 176

9.1 对机关事业单位养老金改革的启示                                           177

9.1.1企业机关事业单位的替代率发展趋势及比较                      177

9.1.2 企业机关事业单位的替代率差距的进一步说明                179

9.1.3 关于养老金“双轨制”问题                                                     181

9.1.4 小结                                                                                                    189

9.2 对农村养老保险制度的启示                                                         192

9.2.1 新型农村养老保险制度的由来                                                 193

9.2.2 新农保制度的主要内容及评价                                                 194

9.2.3 新农保个人账户存在的问题                                                     196

9.2.4 农村老年收入保障的合理选择－普惠制养老金                 203

9.2.5 小结                                                                                                    210

9.3 本章小结                                                                                             211

第10章结论与政策建议                                                                         213

10.1 基本结论                                                                                            213

10.2 政策建议                                                                                            215

10.2.1 完善基本养老保险制度的几个重要方面                     215

10.2.3做好基本养老保险制度改革发展的几项重点工作          216

10.3 尚待进一步研究解决的问题                                                       220

参考文献                                                                                                     222

后记                                                                                                               234